水力压裂水平裂缝支撑剂回采预测模型  

The proppant extraction prediction model for hydraulically created horizon-tal fractures

作　　者：陈德春[1] 李文静[2] 李华 石常兰[4] 

机构地区：[1]中国石油大学华东石油工程学院,山东东营257061 [2]中国石化股份胜利油田分公司地质科学研究院,山东东营257015 [3]中海油湛江油田分公司,广东湛江524057 [4]中国石油大庆油田有限责任公司井下作分公司,黑龙江大庆163453

出　　处：《油气地质与采收率》2008年第5期92-94,97,共4页Petroleum Geology and Recovery Efficiency

基　　金：中国石油化工股份有限公司资助项目“水力裂缝层内爆炸提高采收率技术基础研究”(P03051)

摘　　要：针对大庆油区聚合物驱油井压裂后裂缝支撑剂回采严重的问题,基于1164个水力压裂油层的裂缝支撑剂回采资料,研究了聚合物驱油井压裂裂缝支撑剂回采机理及影响因素,并利用灰色关联分析方法,计算了影响支撑剂回采的36个因素的关联度,确定了19个因素为主要因素;同时,运用多元二次非线性回归方法建立了水力压裂水平缝支撑剂回采预测模型。研究结果表明,模型拟合结果总符合率为98.80%,模型预测结果总符合率为93.81%,证明了模型具有较高的精度,能够满足油田生产对油井压裂裂缝支撑剂回采状况的预测需要。Aimed at the acute problem of sand production with proppant extraction after fracturing of polymer flooding wells in Daqing Oilfield,the sand production mechanism and influential factors are researched based on the fractures proppant extraction data of 1 164 fracturing layers in Daqing Oilfield.The correlation of 36 factors that affects proppant extraction are calculated using gray correlative theory and 19 factors are determined as dominant ones.Meanwhile,polynomial quadratic non-linear regression was applied to build the proppant extraction prediction model.The research results show that total fitting coincidence rate of the match results is 98.80%,and that of the prediction results is 93.81%.The calculating precision of the model is proved.The present models can meet the need of prediction of proppant extraction and provide guide for the application of sand control measures in hydraulically fractured wells in Daqing Oilfield.

关 键 词：支撑剂回采 预测模型 水力压裂 非线性回归 大庆油区 

分 类 号：TE357.12[石油与天然气工程—油气田开发工程]