1988～2006年四川及邻区28次地震短临异常及预测的初步研究  

Primary study on the precursive short and impend anomalies of 28 earthquakes in Sichuan region and around areas from 1988 to 2006

作　　者：黄圣睦[1] 董瑞英[1] 

机构地区：[1]四川省地震局,四川成都610041

出　　处：《四川地震》2008年第3期8-10,共3页Earthquake Research in Sichuan

摘　　要：本文根据1988～2006年28次四川及邻区中强以上地震发生前，四川省地震预测研究所发现和认定的短临异常，加以分类整理对比，共归纳出震兆、地下水、地变形、地电和地磁4个方面约200余项异常。28次地震的震前异常出现率，以短临震兆和临震地下水突变为最高，可达80％-90％；地形变及地磁异常可达70％，但一次地震前大多只有7—10项异常；即每个方面只有1～3项。28次地震中形成综合预测的单项手段组或中心站睨确预测的有10次。预测研究所综合作出预测填卡10次，仅占30％。可以看出，中强地震前如何根据并非大量出现的短临异常及时作出决断是很大的一个难题。文末对改进短临异常识别与研究提出了相应的经验教训。The precumive short and impending anomalies appeared before 28 moderate and strong earthquakes in Sichuan region and around areas from 1988 to 2006 are induced and about 200 items which are seismicity, underground water levels, surface deformation, telluric current and magnetic force are summarized. Among the 28 times precursive anomalies, the seismic precursors appeared more often than other items and the rate of precursors is 80% to 90%. The rate of surface deformation precursors is 70%. Averagely speaking, 7 to 10 anomalies of the precursive items can be found before an earthquake. Among the precursive anomalies before 28 earthquakes, the earthquake prediction reports according to the single item or formed by the persons of Seismic Centers Station have only 10 times. Earthquake Prediction Institute of Earthquake Administration of Sichuan Province made 10 times predictions and the rate of making prediction is 30%. Based on the rate of making predictions, we think that the earthquake predicting is still a difficult task. In this paper we also put forward some suggestions how to distinguish the precursors from the observation data.

关 键 词：短临异常 地震预测 四川地区 综合分析 

分 类 号：P315.7[天文地球—地震学]