经济周期性波动与政府宏观调控措施——基于中国和美国的经验分析  

Business Cycles and Government Macro-control Policies:Based on Empirical Research on China and the United States

作　　者：李天德[1] 曾忠东[1] 谢志超[1] 

机构地区：[1]四川大学经济学院,四川成都610064

出　　处：《四川大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》2008年第5期5-13,共9页Journal of Sichuan University：Philosophy and Social Science Edition

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目<世界经济周期性与非周期性波动与中国经济预警机制建设>(05&ZD006)的阶段性研究成果

摘　　要：通过协整检验和基于向量误差修正VEC模型的因果关系检验,分析中美两国经济周期性波动与政府宏观调控措施之间的内在关系,同时对中美两国政府实施调控政策的偏好和有效性进行对比分析。结果发现,中国宏观经济波动与美国宏观经济波动存在长期的相互关系;中国更侧重于使用政府消费与投资支出作为短期调控措施,而美国更偏向于使用联邦基金基准利率作为短期调控经济的信号;中国政府在运用货币供给量M2作为宏观调控政策时更具有主动性,而基准利率工具属于弱外生变量,显著受到经济波动的反馈作用。美国政府支出属于强外生变量,政府对其调控的自主性较强。This paper analyses the interaction of business cycles and government macro-control policies both in China and the United States through co-integration test and causality test based on VEC （vector error correction） model. We examine the preference and validity of the government policies between China and A- merica in comparison. Therefore, we find that the business cycles of China and that of the U. S. are greatly related in the long term. However, China prefers to use government spending and investment expenditure as its short term control policy, while America would like to change the federal fund rate. And Chinese government handles the money supply M2 as its macroeconomic control policy more initiatively, whereas the U. S. puts emphasis on its government expenditure that is a stronglyeffective exogenous variable.

关 键 词：经济波动 宏观调控 协整检验 VEC模型 中国 美国 

分 类 号：F832[经济管理—金融学] F833.1