我国彩票业中的幸运号码偏好分析  

The Luck-Number Preference in Chinese Lotto Game

作　　者：郭锐[1] 邓翔[1] 

机构地区：[1]四川大学经济学院,四川成都610064

出　　处：《四川大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》2008年第5期14-21,共8页Journal of Sichuan University：Philosophy and Social Science Edition

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"经济转型期中国居民的消费;储蓄行为及其对宏观经济的影响"(70573075)

摘　　要：我国彩票业中广泛存在着某些号码较其他号码更受欢迎的现象,这意味着购买这些号码的博彩者将会在承担同样风险的条件下获取较低的期望收益。通过博弈分析表明,在一个完全由理性博彩者组成的彩票市场上,不应该出现这样的状况。要解释这一现象,一个简单可行的办法是修正传统的经济人假设,向彩票购买者的效用函数中引入某些非经济动机,例如某些"幸运号码"本身带给博彩者的价值。In lotto game, some special numbers are remarkably more popular than others, and this fact means that these players who purchased popular numbers would gain lower expectation return but bear same risk. Through a model based on game theory, this paper indicates that this phenomenon should never come in- to existence if all lotto players are rational economic agents. To make theory consist with fact, a simple and viable measure is to introduce some non-economic motivation such as some value of luck numbers into players＇ utility function.

关 键 词：彩票 号码偏好 期望效用理论 行为经济学 

分 类 号：F830.59[经济管理—金融学]