我国溃坝生命风险分析方法探讨  

Discussion on analysis method for risk of life loss caused by dam failure in China

作　　者：宋敬衖[1,2] 何鲜峰[3,4] 

机构地区：[1]河海大学水利水电工程学院,江苏南京210098 [2]河海大学水资源高效利用与工程安全国家工程研究中心,江苏南京210098 [3]黄河水利科学研究院,河南郑州450003 [4]水利部堤防安全与病害防治工程技术研究中心,河南郑州450003

出　　处：《河海大学学报（自然科学版）》2008年第5期628-633,共6页Journal of Hohai University(Natural Sciences)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(50579010;50539010;50539110);国家科技支撑计划基金(2006BAC14B03);中国水电工程顾问集团公司科技项目(CHC-KJ-2007-02);国家自然科学基金-雅砻江水电开发联合基金(50539030-1-3)

摘　　要：为满足大坝风险评价的需要,分析并确定了溃坝生命损失风险(个体风险、社会风险)的评价内容.鉴于生命风险标准的建立需要综合考虑国家的政治、经济、文化、公众心理、技术发展水平等因素的影响,研究了综合考虑大坝和下游地区损失的大坝风险评定标准制定原则,并在分析我国不同区域人口分布、经济发展水平存在差异的基础上,提出了我国生命风险的区域划分标准.To meet the needs of dam risk assessments, the assessment contents of risk of life loss caused by dam failure （including individual risk and social risk） are analyzed and determined. The standard establishment of risk of life loss needs to comprehensively consider the influences of national politics, economy, culture, public psychology and technical development level. Based on this, the standard-setting principles of dam risk assessment are studied, considering the loss in the vicinity of the dam and its downstream area. Region division standards for China＇ s risk of life loss are put forward based on the great difference in population distribution and economic development level among different regions.

关 键 词：风险管理 大坝 个体风险 社会风险 风险标准 

分 类 号：TV698.2[水利工程—水利水电工程]