2007年地气图方法预测总结和北京奥运期间降水预测  

Review of Climate Prediction in 2007 Based on Di-qi Map and Precipitation Prediction During Beijin Olympics

作　　者：汤懋苍[1] 李洁[1] 周长春[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所

出　　处：《干旱气象》2008年第3期72-75,共4页Journal of Arid Meteorology

基　　金：干旱气象科研基金(IAM200705)资助

摘　　要：对2007年做出的各项气候预测进行了回顾,汛期预报中预测的西北大部、淮河流域和福建3块多雨区基本正确,它们都是根据地气图的基本原理预测得到。月降水预报取得平均70.5分的好成绩,这得益于地气系统的活动规律较单纯;年度预报则基本上失败了,这是因为2008年1月我国发生了6.9级强震,破坏了地气系统的正常运行规律,使预报准确率大为降低。最后还对2008年8月的月降水预测进行了讨论。The precipitation prediction in 2007 was reviewed. In the flood season, the prediction that the great part of Northwest China, Huaihe Valley and Fujian would be three more rainfall areas is basically correct, which based on the Di - qi map forecast principle. The monthly precipitation prediction gets a good average score of 70.5, which is due to the simple underground gas system actions. But because of the Ms6.9 earthquake happened in China in January 2008, which destroyed the normal operation of underground gas system and caused the forecast accuracy reduced greatly, the year prediction is basically unsuccessful. Finally the precipitation prediction of August, 2008 was discussed.

关 键 词：地气图 气候预测 地气环流(地下气象) 

分 类 号：P461[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]