CUACE／Dust：亚洲沙尘暴计算机业务预报系统  

CUACE/Dust-an integrated system for operational dust forecasting in Asia

作　　者：龚山陵[1,2] 张小曳[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象科学研究院中国气象局大气成分观测与服务中心,中国北京100081 [2]加拿大环境部科技司空气质量研究处,加拿大多伦多4905Dufferin Street

出　　处：《计算机与应用化学》2008年第9期1061-1067,共7页Computers and Applied Chemistry

基　　金：中国科技部基金资助项目(2004D1B3J115);中国国家基础研究计划(973)资助项目(2006CB403703；2006CB403701)．

摘　　要：CUACE/Dust(中国沙尘暴大气化学环境系统)为一综合性的沙尘暴预报系统。该系统由以下两部分组成:(1)包含沙尘起沙及干/湿沉降等其他大气动力过程的大气气溶胶模块;(2)建立在中国气象局的观测资料以及中国风云二号地球静止卫星反演资料上的资料同化系统。这是第一次通过资料同化系统成功地将地面观测台站的数据与卫星的沙尘气溶胶反演资料结合起来,并用于东亚地区的实时业务预报。在预报2006年东亚地区的沙尘暴过程中,该业务系统捕捉到了31次大型沙尘暴事件,而这些事件均被地面台站和卫星所观测到。分析结果显示,在有资料同化系统参与的情况下,2006年春季东亚地区0～24小时季节平均预报技术得分从0.22上升至0.31,实现了41%的增长。同时还将一些具有代表性的台站在整个2006年春季所预报的沙尘浓度的时间序列与地面PM10监测数据进行了比对。比对结果显示,所预报的沙尘浓度的时间序列与出现大量沙尘气溶胶的近地表地区的沙尘暴的发生时间及强度吻合。大气化学和物理学杂志为该预报系统的研发及应用结果专门出了一期特刊,而本文则为该特刊的总结性报告。An integrated sand and dust storm （SDS） forecasting system-CUACE/Dust （Chinese Unified Atmospheric Chemistry Environment for Dust） has been developed, which consists of a comprehensive dust aerosol module with emission, dry/wet depositions and other atmospheric dynamic processes, and a data assimilation system （DAS） using observational data from the CMA （China Meteorological Administration） ground dust monitoring network and retrieved dust information from a Chinese geostationary satellite-FY-2C. This is the first time that a combination of surface network observations and satellite retrievals of the dust aerosol has been successfully used in the real time operational forecasts in East Asia through a DAS. During its application for the operational SDS forecasts in East Asia for spring 2006, this system captured the major 31 SDS episodes observed by beth surface and satellite observations. Analysis shows that the seasonal mean threat score （TS） for 0 - 24 hr forecast over the East Asia in spring 2006 increased from 0.22 to 0.31 by using the DAS, a 41% enhancement. The time series of the forecasted dust concentrations for a number of representative stations for the whole spring 2006 were also evaluated against the surface PM10 monitoring data, showing a very good agreement in terms of the SDS timing and magnitudes near source regions where dust aerosols dominate. This is a summary paper for a special issue of ACP featuring the development and results of the forecasting system.

关 键 词：沙尘暴 业务预报 

分 类 号：TP183[自动化与计算机技术—控制理论与控制工程]