养老保险制度改革的财政效应和收入分配效应——基于微观模拟的研究途径  

Study on Financial and Income Distribution Effect of Pension Insurance Reform:Based on Research Approach of Microcosmic Simulation

作　　者：张世伟[1] 李学[2] 

机构地区：[1]吉林大学数量经济研究中心,吉林长春130012 [2]长春税务学院经济模拟研究所,吉林长春130117

出　　处：《人口与经济》2008年第5期61-65,共5页Population & Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(05BYJ026);教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目(05JJD790079);教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划(NCET-05-0318)

摘　　要：本文提供了一个用于分析我国养老保险制度改革的财政效应和收入分配效应的动态微观模拟模型,并依据长春市的微观数据进行了新旧养老保险制度的模拟实验。实验结果指出尽管实施新的养老保险制度会带来收入差距的轻微扩大,但能够使养老金收支尽快趋于平衡,财政补贴明显降低,养老金替代率比较平稳,养老保险收益率明显提高。In this paper, a dynamic microcosmic simulation model of financial and income distribution effects on pension insurance institutional reform is established and a simulative experiment on former and current pension insurance systems in made based on micro-data of Changchun City. The experimental results indicate that despite the minor enlargement of income disparity is brought after implementation of the new pension insurance system, it would balance revenue and expenditure of pension soon, cut fiscal subsidy substantially, stabilize pension substitution rate and improve pension insurance earning rate clearly.

关 键 词：养老保险 微观模拟模型 收入分配 政策分析 

分 类 号：F840.67[经济管理—保险]