税收增速大于GDP增速的产业结构分析  

Research on Tax Revenue Increase More Than GDP Increase Based upon Industry Structure

作　　者：唐登山[1] 吴宏[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]武汉大学经济与管理学院 [2]浙江财经学院

出　　处：《数量经济技术经济研究》2008年第10期108-118,共11页Journal of Quantitative & Technological Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助,编号:70773082;教育部人文社科规划项目资助,编号:05JC790111

摘　　要：目前对中国税收增速大于GDP增速的研究多从经济增长、征管水平提升、GDP结构与税收结构差异、地方政府廉价批地所引致的高税产业高速发展等因素出发进行定性或较简单的实证研究。本文从GDP的产业结构以及各产业税负率入手,构建税收增速大于GDP增速的理论模型,并提供了相应的算法。该算法能测算各产业对此现象的"贡献"。我们试图为理解税收增速大于GDP增速的研究路径以及预测宏观税负率增减提供参考建议。Recently, qualitative and comparatively simple positive research on tax revenue increase more than GDP increase are mostly based upon some factors, such as economic growth, levy technology enhancement, difference between struc- ture of GDP and tax, excessive increase of high-tax industries due to local governments＇ land-leasing behavior, etc. We firstly develop a theoretical model and responding algorithm about this phenomenon based on industry structure and their tax burden. Our model explicitly takes into account every industry＇s contribution to this phenomenon. We attempt to provide a path for explaining tax revenue increase more than GDP increase and suggestion for forecasting the change of macro-tax burden.

关 键 词：税收增速 产业结构 算法 

分 类 号：F121.3[经济管理—世界经济]