对税收与GDP应同步增长理论的质疑  

A Doubt on the Theory that Tax Revenue Growth would be Synchronized with GDP Growth

作　　者：杨斌[1] 

机构地区：[1]闽江学院

出　　处：《税务研究》2008年第9期3-7,共5页

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(70573086)之阶段性成果

摘　　要：本文梳理了关于税收增长速度与GDP增长速度关系的研究文献,对"税收增长与GDP增长应该同步"的结论提出质疑。并在分析我国近20年税收增长弹性数据的基础上,通过生产、分配、消费三个经济活动过程,探究税收增长因素及其与GDP的关系。指出在实行复合税制即税种多环节叠加的情况下,从一个经济周期看,税收增长与GDP增长必然不同步,税收弹性总是大于1或小于1。This paper gives literature reviews on the relationship between the tax revenue growth rate and GDP growth. Different from the existing view, it argues that the tax increase should be synchronized with the GDP growth, exploring the tax revenue growth factors and their correlativity with GDP through the three economic activities （i.e. production, distribution, consumption） based on the analysis of the elastic data of China＇s tax revenue growth over the past 20 years. It further points out that, under the implementation of a composite tax system, namely, a multi-link superimposed category of tax, as viewed from an economic cycle, the tax revenue growth is indeed asynchronous with GDP growth, usually with a tax elasticity of either larger than 1 or less than 1.

关 键 词：税收超速增长 税收弹性 税收增长 

分 类 号：F812.42[经济管理—财政学]