外商在华直接投资与中国对外贸易相互关系的实证分析  

The Empirical Study on the Relationship between the FDI Inflows and China's Foreign Trade

作　　者：陈继勇[1] 雷欣[1] 

机构地区：[1]武汉大学经济发展研究中心

出　　处：《世界经济研究》2008年第9期3-10,共8页World Economy Studies

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目(07AJL016);国家自然科学基金项目(70773082);教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目(2007JJD790140)的阶段性成果

摘　　要：改革开放三十年来,中国经济发展取得了举世瞩目的成就。作为对外开放重要组成部分的外商在华直接投资与对外贸易的快速增长,对中国经济增长速度的加快、生产技术水平的提高、产业结构的优化起了重要推动作用。本文运用协整分析法和向量自回归(VAR)模型,从中国对外贸易总额、结构、方式、地区分布以及参与对外贸易的企业性质等五个方面,分析了外商在华直接投资与中国对外贸易之间的相互关系。研究结果表明,外商在华直接投资与中国对外贸易发展之间表现为以互补为主、替代与互补交织的关系。China's economic development has made remarkable achievements in 30 years of the reform and opening-up.As important parts of opening-up,FDI inflows and foreign trade have played important roles in accelerating the China's economic growth rate,raising the level of production technology,optimizing the industrial structure.We analyze the relationship between the FDI inflows and the China's foreign trade with the cointegration model and the VAR model from five aspects of the China's foreign trade,such as the total amount,the structure,the way,the regional distribution and the type of enterprises involved in foreign trade.The results showed that the relationship between the foreign direct investment in China and China's foreign trade development are mainly complementary and partly substitutionary.

关 键 词：外商在华直接投资 中国对外贸易 协整分析 向量自回归模型 

分 类 号：F832.6[经济管理—金融学]