储量增长预测模型的对比分析  

Contrastive analysis of reserves increasing prediction models

作　　者：朱杰[1] 车长波[2] 刘成林[1] 杨虎林[2] 苏瑾[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国石油大学(北京)资源与信息学院,北京102249 [2]国土资源部油气资源战略研究中心,北京100034

出　　处：《西安石油大学学报（自然科学版）》2008年第5期21-23,共3页Journal of Xi’an Shiyou University（Natural Science Edition）

基　　金：国家重大专项“新一轮全国油气资源评价”之“我国油气资源潜力分析及发现趋势预测”(编号:ZP-C-14)部分成果

摘　　要：在调研国内外油气储量增长趋势预测研究的基础上,分析了翁旋回、龚帕兹、逻辑斯谛和高斯模型中各参数的地质含义和对曲线形态的控制作用.应用以上4种模型对苏北盆地2006—2030年石油储量增长趋势进行了预测.在预测效果上,左偏型的翁旋回和龚帕兹模型比对称型的逻辑斯谛和高斯模型更符合我国含油气盆地的储量增长特点.Based on the researches of reserve increasing prediction models at home and abroad,the geological signification of the parameters in each prediction model and the control of them to the shape of the prediction curve are analyzed,and the studied models include Weng cycle,the Compartz model,the Logistic model and the Gauss model.The four models are used for forecasting the petroleum reserve increasing tendency of Subei Basin.The prediction results show that to 2030 year,the proved degree of the petroleum resource in this area will reach to about 95%.Through comparing,it is held that Weng cycle and Compartz model are more suitable for forecasting the reserve increasing of the petroliferous basins in China than he Logistic model and the Gauss model.

关 键 词：储量增长 预测模型 翁旋回模型 龚帕兹模型 逻辑斯谛模型 高斯模型 苏北盆地 

分 类 号：TE155[石油与天然气工程—油气勘探]