中国大陆西部未来强震危险性预测研究  

DISCUSSION ON THE RISK OF STRONG EARTHQUAKES IN THE FUTURE IN WEST OF CHINESE MAINLAND

作　　者：屠泓为[1] 张小香[1] 万秀红[1] 吴进 

机构地区：[1]青海省地震局,青海西宁810001 [2]江苏省扬州市地震局,江苏扬州225002

出　　处：《高原地震》2008年第2期4-10,3,共8页Plateau Earthquake Research

基　　金：青海地震科学基金(2007A01);地震科学联合青年基金(C08072)

摘　　要：主要研究中国大陆西部(E107°以西)区域中长期地震危险性和可能发生强震的区域。文中选用了可靠时段地震目录,应用震级—频度关系,计算6级以上各震级段年优势发生次数,对近100年以来的7级以上地震的地震波能量进行统计和分析,并利用近30年来地震震源机制解计算应力场的方向。结合断裂构造、应力场方向、缺震次数及不同区域的能量释放情况,认为中天山南北区域、中印巴三国交界区域、青甘藏川交界区域及祁连地震带(即南北地震带中段和北段)等几个区域应为未来的重点监测区域。In this paper, the risk areas of strong earthquake in west of Chinese mainland in the near future are analyzed. The reliable earthquake catalog is selected , and the wave energy of Ms ≥7.0 earthquakes is analyzed since 1990 according to the relations of magnitude and frequency. The stress field direction is calculated by the focal mechanisms of recently 30 years. According to the data of offset structures, the stress field direction and the lack earthquakes and the energy released in different regions, the important monitoring regions are the north and south area of middle - west Tianshan, the boundary region of China , India and Pakistan, the boundary region of Qinghai, Sichuan, Gansu, Xizang and the Qilian earthquake zone.

关 键 词：大陆西部 强震 地震预测 危险性分析 

分 类 号：P315.75[天文地球—地震学]