利用Gumbel极值分布预测管道最大腐蚀深度  

EVALUATION OF MAXIMUM CORROSION DEPTH OF PIPE BY GUMBEL EXTREME VALUE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION

作　　者：王水勇[1] 任爱[1] 

机构地区：[1]苏州热工院电站寿命管理研究中心,苏州215004

出　　处：《腐蚀科学与防护技术》2008年第5期358-360,共3页Corrosion Science and Protection Technology

摘　　要：对某核电站设冷水系统二次滤网部分不锈钢除淤管道的壁厚数据进行概率统计分析,利用Gumbel极值分布和回归期预测了不锈钢除淤管道最大腐蚀深度.用最小方差线性无偏估计法对Gumbel分布函数的参数估值,并对Gumbel分布函数作K.S.适度检验,证明冲淤管道腐蚀数据的Gumbel极值分布成立,最大腐蚀深度预测值可信.Corrosion depth data of partial backwash pipes of a sea water system in nuclear power plant was treated statistically using the extreme value probability distribution i. e. the so called Gumbel distribution. And the maximum corrosion depth 10. 8 ±1.3 mm of the whole backwash pipes had been predicted with the return period which equals to 149. The corrosion depth data were subjected to Gumbel distribution treatment and the parameters of its probability function were estimated by MVLUE method. The Gumbel probability distribution was checked by Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and proved to be accurate. As a result, the maximum depth predicted by it was confident.

关 键 词：管道腐蚀 Gumbel分布 MVLUE K.S.检验 最大腐蚀深度预测 

分 类 号：TG174.1[金属学及工艺—金属表面处理]