强降水诱发山体滑坡预报  

The Research of Landslip Forecast Reduced by Strong Precipitation

作　　者：马力[1,2] 游扬声[2] 缪启龙[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学,江苏南京210044 [2]重庆市气象局,重庆410047

出　　处：《山地学报》2008年第5期583-589,共7页Mountain Research

摘　　要：山体滑坡是山地灾害的一种,在诱发滑坡的众多自然因素中,强降水是最主要的诱发因素之一。通过对重庆1615个滑坡个例与其发生前10d降水量值做统计分析,揭示了降水量、滑坡发生时间、滑坡发生概率三者之间的关系,由此给出了诱发滑坡的有效降水量定义、计算思路和计算公式,并依此建立了强降水诱发的滑坡预报模型。所揭示出的降水权重系数变化规律,从滑坡单体位移资料中得到了进一步验证。这个规律还有助于进行强降水诱发滑坡作用机理研究。Landslide is a geological disasters in the landslide induced by the many natural factors, heavy rainfall is one of the most important factors. After statistically analyzing the relationship of the 10 days total precipitation as the landslide occurring on 1 615 samples of Chongqing, it can be obtained the relationship of the rainfall, the time of the landslide taking place and the probability of the landslide taking place , which is given landslides induced by the effective precipitation definitions, calculation formula and ideas, and accordingly established a strong precipitation-induced landslides forecasting model. In this paper, It can be validate from the data of monomer landslide displacement , which reveals the precipitation changes of weight coefficient. The law also contribute to the strong precipitation-induced landslides on the mechanism.

关 键 词：滑坡 预报 降雨量 有效降水量 

分 类 号：P642.22[天文地球—工程地质学]