长江上游蒋家沟泥石流输沙年际变化与降水旋回特征关系  

The Relationship between the Variation of Annual Rainfall and the Variation of Sediment Transport by Debris Flows at Jiangjia Gully in the Upper Reach of Yangtze River

作　　者：王裕宜[1,2] 詹钱登[3] 田冰[2,4,5] 洪勇[1,2] 邹仁元[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院山地灾害与地表过程重点实验室,中国科学院东川泥石流观测研究站,四川成都610041 [2]中国科学院水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所,四川成都610041 [3]台湾成功大学水利及海洋工程系,台湾台南701001 [4]河北师范大学资源与环境科学学院,河北石家庄050016 [5]中国科学院研究生院,北京100049

出　　处：《山地学报》2008年第5期590-596,共7页Mountain Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助(40671026)~~

摘　　要：根据小江流域1956～2002年的降水资料，运用Mann—Kendall（M—K）非参数检验法和自相关函数，发现1990代降水呈现显著增加的趋势，其降水年均值比前期年均值增加96．5mm（16．2％）。并结合37a气候变化下的蒋家沟高频率暴雨泥石流输沙量时序观测资料，分析了降雨变化与泥石流输沙量的关系，结果显示1990年代泥石流输沙量有显著增加的趋势，1990年代的年均输沙量比前期（1965～1989年）的年均输沙量多91×10^4m^3／a。反映了暴雨泥石流输沙年际变率对降水年际变化的旧应关系。本文已经初步揭示暴雨泥石流灾害活动年际变化的基本规律，并且为未来暴雨泥石流中、短期时间尺度的预测研究提供一条新路。The result also showed that the average annual rainfall in 1990s was about 96.5 mm （ 16.2% ） larger than that in 1956 - 1989. The variation of annual rainfall and the variation of sediment transport by debris flows at Jiangjia Gully were studied, based on 37years observation data, in order to investigate the impact of climate change on annual sediment transport by debris flows. The result showed that there was significant increase of annual sediment transport in 1990s. Comparison with the annual sediment transport in the period of 1965 to 1989, the increase of average annual sediment transport in 1990s was about 910 000 m^3/yr. This showed that the increase of rainfall resulted in the increase of debris flow sediment transport. This study has revealed the preliminary trends of debris flow annual sediment transport and its relation with the annual rainfall variation at Jiangjia Gully.

关 键 词：暴雨泥石流 降雨的年际变化 输沙年际变率 短尺度的预测 

分 类 号：P642.23[天文地球—工程地质学]