基于马尔柯夫模型的涨渡湖流域土地利用变化预测  

Prediction of Land-Use Change in Zhangdu Watershed based on a Markov Model

作　　者：李黔湘[1] 王华斌[2] 

机构地区：[1]北京市水利水电技术中心,北京100073 [2]中国测绘科学研究院,北京100039

出　　处：《资源科学》2008年第10期1541-1546,共6页Resources Science

基　　金：世界自然基金会汇丰长江项目(编号:WWF2HSBCCN0088.04HS02)

摘　　要：基于TM卫星遥感数据，在GIS技术支持下，建立了涨渡湖流域土地利用数据库；通过提取湿地信息，运用马尔柯夫链模型对该流域土地利用特别是湿地资源在2010年～2015年的数量变化进行预测；运用GIS软件制作了2015年主要变化类型土地的密度分布图，并从人文因素方面阐述了变化的原因。研究表明：涨渡湖流域到2015年湿地的变化趋势是坑塘较目前增加1713．4hm^2，主要围绕涨渡湖流域分布，水田减少2083．1hm^2，主要分布在涨渡湖流域上部；耕地减少277．8hm^2，主要在涨渡湖流域的东部以及南部；建设用地增加544．3hm^2，主要分布在涨渡湖的北部。总的趋势是除水库坑塘、滩地、沼泽呈现增加趋势，其余河渠、湖泊和水田均呈现减少态势。非湿地变化趋势是草地、建设用地增加，耕地和林地减少。流域土地利用变化的主要因素是围湖造田和城市化等。We established a land use database from 1987 to 2000 using GIS technology and TM remote sensing satellite data. Before using the model to predict land use change in the Zhangdu watershed between 2010 and 2015, we compared the predicted data and the real data to check the accuracy of the Markov models. Except for bottomland, all other land-use type prediction errors were below five percent. The Markov model＇s predictive accuracy is good, and we used it to predict annual land use change for each county from 2010 to 2015. Then, through calculation of the percentage of each land-use amount by county, we created land type density distribution maps for 2015 to directly show the changes in land use. After obtaining the wetland change information and utilizing the Markov model, we then analyzed the characteristics of land use change, in particular for wetlands in the Zhangdu watershed, and predicted the land use change from 2010 to 2015 and explained the results showed that by 2015, pond area will increase impact of human activities on land use change. The by 1 713.4hm2, and be distributed throughout the Zhangdu watershed; paddy will be reduced by 2 083.1 hm^2 , mainly in the northern part of the watershed; farmland will be reduced by 277.8hm^2, mainly in the eastern and southern parts of the watershed; and construction land will increase by 544.3hm^2, mainly in the northern area of the Zhangdu watershed. The wetland change trend is that pond, bottomland, and swamp will increase in the future, and river, lake and paddy field will be reduced. The trends for other land use types predict that grassland and construction land will increase, while farmland and forest will be reduced. The main reason for the changes in land use in the watershed is land reclamation due to urbanization.

关 键 词：RS GIS 马尔柯夫链模型 预测 土地利用格局变化 涨渡湖流域 

分 类 号：F301[经济管理—产业经济] F224