动力延伸预报产品在东北地区月尺度气候预测中的释用及评估  

Explanative Application and Appraise of Dynamical Extended Forecast Products in Monthly-scale Climatic Prediction of Northeast CHINA

作　　者：张运福[1] 赵连伟[1] 王大钧[1] 

机构地区：[1]沈阳区域气候中心,辽宁沈阳110016

出　　处：《黑龙江气象》2008年第3期1-3,共3页Heilongjiang Meteorology

摘　　要：针对东北地区53站的降水距平百分率和温度距平这两个基本业务要素,运用李维京等在1999年提出来的动力统计相结合和典型相关回归这两种方案,对国家气候中心T63动力延伸集合预报的500 hPa月平均高度距平进行释用,对释用结果采用PS评分和同号率进行预测效果评估,结果表明:这两种方法有较好的应用价值。The 500hpa monthly-average height anomaly Of T63 dynamical extended forecast products of national climate center is explanatorily applied by the two methods of dynamical and statistical approaches that devised by LiWeijing in 1999 and canonical correlation regression.The results of explanative application are evaluated that aim to percentage of precipitation anomaly and temperature anomaly of in 53 observation stations of northeast China by PS grade and same symbol ratio. The result indicates that the two methods have finer application value.

关 键 词：降尺度 一层动力模式 典型相关回归 

分 类 号：P459.9[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]