基于信仰推断的电子设备可靠性增长数据分析  

Data analysis of reliability growth test for electronic equipments based on Fiducial inference

作　　者：杨军[1] 赵宇[1] 于丹[2] 

机构地区：[1]北京航空航天大学工程系统工程系,北京100191 [2]中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院,北京100080

出　　处：《北京航空航天大学学报》2008年第9期995-998,共4页Journal of Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics

基　　金：总装预研重点基金资助项目(9140A19030106HK0108)

摘　　要：可靠性增长是可靠性工程的重要方面,但针对工程中普遍存在的各阶段小样本试验数据,基本上还没有有效的分析方法.为此,首先研究推广了参数受限制的Fiducial方法,而对于非位置-刻度簇分布,使用规范化的似然方法进行推广,并指出采用Fiducial方法得到的评估结果具有很好的频率性质;然后在顺序单调约束的可靠性增长模型下,使用参数受限制的Fiducial方法研究了电子产品的可靠性评估方法,具体给出了故障可观测情形和区间数据情形下电子产品失效率的置信上限.Reliability growth is an important part of reliability engineering, but for the problem that small samples are often occurred during reliability growth test, there is almost no effective method so far. To solve this problem, fiducial, inference with restricted parameter space was studied, for non-location-scale families, it was generalized by standardized likelihood, and it was pointed out that evaluation results obtained by fiducial distribution are equal to the corresponding results obtained by frequency statistics. Under the reliability growth model with monotone constraints, reliability evaluation of electronic equipments for reliability growth test was analyzed by fiducial inference with restricted parameter space, and for cases with complete failure time data or interval-censored failure time data during each stage of the reliability growth test, the upper confidence limit of failure rate for electronic equipments was given in detail.

关 键 词：指数分布 单调约束模型 可靠性增长 限制参数空间 Fiducial分布 

分 类 号：O212.1[理学—概率论与数理统计]