城市发展战略规划中情景分析方法的运用-以临汾市为例  

On the application of the method of scenario analysis in urban development strategy planning

作　　者：罗绍荣[1] 甄峰[1] 魏宗财[2] 

机构地区：[1]南京大学城市与区域规划系 [2]广州市城市规划勘测设计研究院

出　　处：《城市问题》2008年第9期29-34,共6页Urban Problems

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(40301014);教育部985二期“城市化与城市科学”科技平台项目

摘　　要：通过临汾城市发展战略规划的实践,提出将情景分析引入战略规划的思路,对具体步骤做了系统阐述,并将其应用于临汾城市空间发展战略规划之中。在分析现状和识别关键影响因素的基础上,设定城市未来发展的情景,对最有可能出现的情景进行分析与评价,并最终确定城市发展战略,从而有效地解决城市发展中的不确定性问题和人的能动性问题,为决策者提供科学合理的参考。Scenario analysis is incorporated into thestrategic planning in the practice of strategic planning for Linfen City development. This paper makes systematical illustration to its specific procedure and puts scenario analysis into the strategic planning for Linfen City development. On the basis of status-in-quo analysis and critical factors identification, the future development scenario is set up and the most possible scenario is analyzed and evaluated so as to solve the uncertainty and human initiatives and to serve as a scientific and rational decision - making reference for the decision - maker.

关 键 词：情景分析 城市发展战略规划 临汾 

分 类 号：TU981[建筑科学—城市规划与设计]