情景分析及其在生态系统研究中的应用  

Scenario analysis and its application in ecosystem research

作　　者：张向龙[1] 王俊[1] 杨新军[1] 孙晶[1] 

机构地区：[1]西北大学城市与资源学系,西安710127

出　　处：《生态学杂志》2008年第10期1763-1770,共8页Chinese Journal of Ecology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(30500077);陕西自然科学基金资助项目(2006D02)

摘　　要：生态系统是一种具有多稳态机制、自适应的复杂系统,其未来往往难以准确预测。情景分析方法针对影响系统的关键不确定性,通过对系统发展的几种可能性进行探索而构建一组不同的未来景象,改变现有心理模型,激发广泛参与,提高决策有效性。近年来,情景分析方法在生态系统研究中得到了越来越多的关注。本文阐述了情景及情景分析的概念及其发展,介绍了两种典型的情景分析步骤,分析了情景分析与传统生态预测方法的区别及其优越性,回顾了情景分析在生态系统研究中应用的经典案例,最后对情景分析其方法本身的发展和在生态系统中的应用进行了总结和展望。Ecosystem is a self-adaptive, complex system with multi-stable state, and its fate is hardly to be predicted precisely because of the high uncertainties. In recent years, scenario analysis has being employed to better understand the mechanism of the multi-stable state of ecosystem to avoid the limitations of traditional prediction and modeling methods. Scenario analysis is a systemic method for the creative thinking about the ecosystem＇ s possible complex and uncertain futures. Its central idea is to consider a variety of possible futures that include many important uncertainties rather than to focus on the accurate prediction of a single outcome. Through positing several informed, plausible, and imagined alternative future environments, the purpose of scenario analysis is to change current mental models, enhance the participation of stakeholders, and improve decision-making. This paper reviewed the concept and process of scenario analysis, clarified the differences between scenario analysis and traditional methods, and, based on several successful cases, summarized the development of the methodology of scenario analysis and its application in ecosystem research.

关 键 词：情景分析 不确定性 生态系统 

分 类 号：Q14[生物学—生态学]