AGNPS模型机理与预测偏差影响因素  

AGNPS model and factors affecting its prediction deviation

作　　者：黄志霖[1] 田耀武[1] 肖文发[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国林业科学研究院森林生态环境与保护研究所国家林业局森林生态环境重点实验室,北京100091

出　　处：《生态学杂志》2008年第10期1806-1813,共8页Chinese Journal of Ecology

基　　金：国家“十一五”科技支撑资助项目(2006BAD03A13和2006BAD03A07)

摘　　要：农业非点源污染已引起了严重和广泛的生态环境和水质问题,受到各种土地利用类型的潜在影响,并与污染源的扩散和防控措施的地理位置有关,涉及到复杂的生态过程和景观格局,由于监测极为困难或成本昂贵,研究方法一般采用模型模拟预测,AGNPS是应用广泛的模型之一。文章介绍了AnnAGNPS4.0模型的特点、时间空间应用范围及其局限性,主要分析了模型的不确定性和预测偏差的影响因素。通过分析认为,美国农业部农业研究局编制的模型参数手册和703号农业手册中参数取值并不适合中国大部分地区,提出了在使用模型时要根据研究地区的实际情况确定参数的取值,并对国内外模型应用结果进行了综合分析,为模型在中国的正确使用提供参考。Agricultural nonpoint source （NPS） pollution induces serious and extensive environmental and water quality probleins that are characterized by the emissions being either difficult or too expensive to observe. The NPS pollution is potentially affected by any type of land use, and relates to the geographical location of pollution sources diffusion and controlling measures imple- mentation, involving in complex ecological processes and landscape patterns. Spatial simulation modeling is commonly accepted in dealing with the NPS pollution problems, but associated with spatial uncertainty. The annualized agricultural nonpoint source （AnnAGNPS） model designed by U.S. Department of Agriculture （USDA-ARS and NRCS） is a continuous and distributed simulation model widely used for watershed assessment, which expands the capabilities of its predecessor AGNPS, a single event model. In this paper, the features, spatial and temporal scales, and limitations of AnnAGNPS 4.0 Model were introduced, with its uncertainty and the factors affecting its prediction deviation analyzed. It was thought that the parameters in USDA-ARS and NRCS handbook and agricultural handbook （Number 703） fall short of in most cases in China, and there were obvious errors in the results of simulation when the parameters were used. According to the action mechanisms of AnnAGNPS, the principles and methods of applying the parameters were advanced, which could be helpful for the valid application of AnnAGNPS 4.0 in China.

关 键 词：AGNPS模型 机理 预测偏差 影响因素 

分 类 号：X52[环境科学与工程—环境工程]