灰色GM(1,1)模型在管道腐蚀预测中的应用  

Application of GM(1,1) Model for Gas Pipeline Corrosion Forecast

作　　者：刘武[1] 季寿红 兰志林 谷雪琴[1] 周裕鑫[1] 

机构地区：[1]西南石油大学,四川成都610500 [2]浙江省天然气开发有限公司,浙江杭州310006 [3]川庆钻探公司,四川成都610000

出　　处：《管道技术与设备》2008年第5期52-53,56,共3页Pipeline Technique and Equipment

摘　　要：随着运营时间的增加,输气管道必然受到不同程度的腐蚀,如果不及时维修或更换,一旦发生泄漏引起爆裂,将会造成极大的损失。为了对输气管道的腐蚀程度进行预测,掌握输气管道腐蚀的基本规律,运用GM(1,1)模型对输气管道的腐蚀速度和腐蚀深度的原始数据进行了灰色动态拟合,建立了相应的灰色微分方程和灰色时间响应函数,应用于四川某气田输气管道未来6年的腐蚀情况预测。计算结果表明:建立的管道腐蚀预测模型GM(1,1)模型,与实测数据相比,误差较小,具有一定的实用价值,能为管道运营者采取相应防腐措施提供可靠的依据。With the time of operation increasing, gas pipelines are subject to different degrees of corrosion, if they are not maintained or replaced in time. Once leaking or bursting takes place, the consequence will be inconceivable. In order to forecast the corrosion of gas pipelines, and find out the basic law of corrosion in gas pipelines, the original data about the rate and depth of corrosion in gas pipelines is imitated with GM （1,1）model;then grey differential equation and grey time response function are established. The result of forecast indicates that the errors of the result of forecast are relatively small and can be used in forecasting corrosion of pipelines in service, thus providing a dependable basis for preventing gas pipeline from corrosion.

关 键 词：输气管道 腐蚀 灰色预测 GM(1  1)模型 

分 类 号：TE98[石油与天然气工程—石油机械设备]