滇中地区4级调制地震与中强地震的关系  

Study on the Relationship Between Modulated Earthquakes of M4.0 - 4.5 and Moderate Strong Earthquakes in Central Yunnan Province

作　　者：杨芬[1] 金明培[1] 赵家本[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国地震局滇西地震预报实验场办公室,大理671000

出　　处：《国际地震动态》2008年第9期26-31,共6页Recent Developments in World Seismology

摘　　要：利用1965年1月1日—2006年6月30日云南省地震遥测台网记录的地震正式目录,对正式目录的中强以上地震进行了余震删除。利用已删除余震的正式目录,研究滇中地区4级调制地震与中强地震的三要素关系,总结历史震例得到:滇中地区发生4级调制地震,其后发生中强以上地震的可能性为75%,平均间隔时间为4.7月;而且中强震发震地点与4级调制地震发震地点相关性较好,平均相隔距离为76km;发生4级孤立型调制地震(无余震发生),其后发生6.5级以上强震的概率为67%;曲江断裂带上发生的4级孤立型调制地震对未来中强震的地点指示意义明确,震级大小与孕震时间相关。Using the earthquake catalogue given by Yunnan Seismic Network from Jan. 1, 1965 to June 30, 2006, in which after-shocks have been deleted, the relationship between modulated earthquakes of M4.0 - 4.5 and medium to strong earthquakes occurred in central Yunnan has been studied. The results show that： the correlation between them is quite good both in time and space. The protability of occurrence of moderate to strong earthquakes is aboat 75%, the time interval is about 4.7 months in average. The distance between modulated earthquake and following modecate-strong earthquake is 76 km in avecage. In the Qujiang fault zone, this kind of phenomena is specially clear, the magnitude of following earthquake is related to the earthquake＇s preparatory period.

关 键 词：4级调制地震 4级孤立型调制地震 中强地震 地震三要素 滇中地区 

分 类 号：P315.72[天文地球—地震学]