内蒙古锡林河流域羊草草原净初级生产力及其对全球气候变化的响应  

Net primary productivity of Leymus chinensis steppe in Xilin River basin of Inner Mongolia and its responses to global climate change.

作　　者：袁飞[1,3] 韩兴国[2] 葛剑平[3] 邬建国[1,2,3,4] 

机构地区：[1]美国亚利桑那州立大学生命科学学院和全球可持续研究所,Tempe,AZ 85287 [2]中国科学院植物研究所,北京100093 [3]北京师范大学景观生态学和可持续性科学研究中心,北京100875 [4]内蒙古大学中美生态、能源及可持续性科学研究中心,呼和浩特010021

出　　处：《应用生态学报》2008年第10期2168-2176,共9页Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology

基　　金：美国自然科学基金资助项目(Grant No.DEB-0618193)

摘　　要：利用CENTURY模型对内蒙古锡林河流域羊草草原在未来气候变化以及大气CO2浓度增高条件下的年地上净初级生产力（annual aboveground net primary productivity，ANPP）动态进行了模拟研究.结果表明：CENTURY模型可以较好地预测ANPP的变化.进一步的情景模拟发现，虽然全球气候变化所引起的温度和降水改变、以及大气CO2浓度升高都会影响ANPP，但降水是关键的影响因子.多个全球气候模型（GCM） 预测该地区未来降水量会减少，故可能导致其ANPP降低，但在以下气候变化情景下研究区ANPP可能会升高：1）CO2浓度倍增，温度升高2 ℃，降水保持不变或增加10%～20%；2）CO2浓度保持不变，温度升高2 ℃，降水增加20%.气候变化将对内蒙古锡林河流域羊草草原产生显著影响.CENTURY model was utilized to simulate the annual aboveground net primary production （ANPP） of Leymus chinensis steppe, a dominant community type in Xilin River basin of Inner Mongolia steppe region. The results showed that the model performed reasonably well in predicting the dynamics of the ANPP. The scenario-based simulations indicated that though the variations of air temperature and precipitation due to global climate change as well as the elevated COe would significandy affect the dynamics of the ANPP, precipitation was the key affecting factor. Several GCM models-had predicted that the precipitation in this region would decrease in the future, and consequently, it was likely that the ANPP would also decrease. Nevertheless, the simulation results showed that while the ANPP decreased in most climate change scenarios, it might also increase in the following climate change scenarios： 1 ） if the atmospheric CO2 concentration was doubled, air temperature was increased by 2 ℃, and precipitation was kept unchanged or increased by 10%- 20%, and 2） if the atmospheric CO2 concentration was kept unchanged, air temperature was increased by 2 ℃, and precipitation was increased by 20%. Overall, it was evident that climate change would have significant effects on the steppe in Xilin River basin of Inner Mongolia.

关 键 词：羊草草原 气候变化 地上净初级生产力 CENTURY模型 

分 类 号：Q948[生物学—植物学] S812[农业科学—草业科学]