基于人口统计数据的区域震害快速评估方法  

A fast approach to regional hazard evaluation based on population statistical data

作　　者：危福泉[1] 蔡宗文[1] 焦双健[2] 魏巍[2] 黄宏生[1] 付再扬[1] 黄天洲[1] 陈琳[1] 

机构地区：[1]福建省地震局,中国福州350003 [2]青岛海洋大学,中国青岛266071

出　　处：《地震学报》2008年第5期518-524,550,共7页Acta Seismologica Sinica

基　　金：Key Scientific and Technological Project of Fujian Province (2003Y039);Key Project of Tenth Five-year Plan of Fujian Province (105-3)

摘　　要：在进行大规模城乡震害预测工作中,需要使用与传统预测方式不同的新模型及新方法,以便实现震害快速预测.利用容易得到的人口统计数据中的人口及建筑抽样信息,通过建筑物分类,在已有的城市建筑震害基础上采用类比方法进行建筑物易损性分析,给出了人口数据及灾害损失的关系模型.利用该模型建立福建省区域范围的建筑物不同结构平均易损性矩阵,按经济条件给出结构不同年代易损性矩阵调整系数,并建立地震灾害快速评估系统.应用结果表明,基于人口统计数据方法进行城乡区域尺度的地震震害评估模型,具有投入少、数据自动预测、定期更新且易于获取等优点.For the purpose of fast prediction of potential urban earthquake hazard, it is important to develop some new models and methods. As the base of hazard evaluation system, the building vulnerability analysis is generally carried out through statistics of single-building structure prediction or constructional analogy. In regional hazard prediction for a large area, constructional analogy method is more practical. In this paper, we develop a model that is capable of hazard evaluation by inputting data of population, building construction type, and building vulnerable analysis. Result of our case study shows that the method we developed is in advantage of automatic data processing, easy accessing and renewing.

关 键 词：人口数据 震害评估模型 易损性矩阵 经济损失 人员伤亡 

分 类 号：P315.9[天文地球—地震学]