全流通市场中的股东行为与市场格局趋势分析  

Judgment on Fundamental Changes in Chinese Stock Market under Complete Circulation

作　　者：巴曙松[1] 储怀英[2] 郑弘[3] 

机构地区：[1]国务院发展研究中心,北京100017 [2]中国科学技术大学,安徽合肥230026 [3]中央财经大学,北京100081

出　　处：《证券市场导报》2008年第10期4-9,共6页Securities Market Herald

摘　　要：本文通过一个经典的动态不完全信息信号博弈模型,分析当前中国股票市场解禁的非流通股股东与现存普通流通股股东的博弈行为。基于此,本文认为当前针对"大小非"减持的信息披露有其积极意义,同时允许上市公司回购股份等也有助于估值信息的传递;本文认为,市场逐步走向更加合理的产业资本与金融资本互动的估值体系的预期有利于资本市场分离均衡的实现,并由此结合股权分置改革后市场的相关特征,对我国股票市场未来即将出现的分化格局进行了判断,中国资本市场在经历后股权分置时代的深刻变革之后经济"晴雨表"的功能将逐步增强。In this paper a classical model of dynamic games with incomplete information is applied to analyze behavior of two parties, i.e., non-tradable shareholders and tradable shareholders in Chinese stock market. Based on that analysis, the paper concludes that the information disclosure system in the process of reducing holdings is essential for separate equilibrium which stands for high efficiency of capital market, and the agents＇ expectation that pricing of shares is getting more reasonable will further lead to separate equilibrium. Further, considering other characters of Chinese capital market under complete circulation, we argue that share price will polarize and Chinese stock market will reflect the performance of Chinese economy more strongly than before.

关 键 词：私募股权投资 上市模式 创业投资公司 

分 类 号：F830.9[经济管理—金融学]