新疆昆仑山地区某大型水利枢纽工程场地地震危险性概率分析  

PROBABILITY ANALYSIS OF EARTHQUAKE DANGER ABOUT ENGINEER SITE OF A LARGE-SCALE HYDRO-CONJUNCT PROJECT IN KUNLUN MOUNTAIN AREA OF XINJIANG

作　　者：彭亮[1] 吴彬[2] 沈军 唐丽华 陈建波 

机构地区：[1]新疆水利水电勘察设计研究院,新疆乌鲁木齐830000 [2]新疆农业大学土木与水利工程学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830052 [3]新疆防御自然灾害研究所,新疆乌鲁木齐830011

出　　处：《内陆地震》2008年第3期234-242,共9页Inland Earthquake

基　　金：新疆自治区高校科研计划资助重点项目(XJEDU2007I13);新疆水利水电工程重点学科基金(xjzdxk20080329)资助

摘　　要：利用地震危险性概率分析方法对大(I)型一等工程—某大型水利枢纽工程所在的场址进行地震危险性分析;该拟建工程场址所在的西昆仑地震带是新疆境内地震活动强度最高、频度最大的地震带,拟建工程坝高库大,为了进行准确的地震危险性分析研究,本研究根据区域地震活动性及地震构造研究成果,确定了地震活动性参数,按照构造类比、历史地震重演原则划分了潜在震源区;在分析了区域地震活动环境和地震构造等因素后,综合评价其对场地地震危险性的影响;根据确定的地震动衰减关系及地震带、潜在震源区的地震活动性参数,应用概率方法计算得出了场地不同概率水平的水平向基岩峰值加速度。其结果做为适合该水库的工程场地地震危险性分析结论,用于指导工程选址、设计、抗震设防。Using the earthquake danger probability analysis method, we analyzed the earthquake danger of field site of large （Ⅰ） and first-class project which is a large-scale hydro-conjunct project. West Kunlun seismic belt which the field site should be build lie in is a seismic belt that the magnitude of seismicity is the highest, and number of one is the biggest in Xinjiang. The dam of the engineer is high and reservoir capability of one is big. In order to analyze and study accurately the earthquake danger, according to the regional seismieity and earthquake structure research result, we determined the seismicity parameter. And we divide the latent epicenter area according to the structure analogy and the rule of historical earthquake repeatability. After analyzing some factors of seismic activity environment and earthquake structure and so on, we appraise synthetically the influence of earthquake danger of field site. According to the definite relation of seismic motion weaken and the earthquake belt, seismicity parameter of the latent epicenter area, we applied the probability method to calculate the peak acceleration of bedrock in level of different probability level for field site. The result will be becoming the analysis conclusion of suiting the earthquake danger of field site of the reservoir. It will be used to guide engineer to select the site, devise and shockproof and defend.

关 键 词：水利枢纽工程 地震危险性 概率分析 

分 类 号：P315.9[天文地球—地震学]