中国能源消费与经济增长关系的分析  

Analysis 0f ReIation between Enetgy Resources Consumption and Economic Development

作　　者：林虹伯[1] 李渝澜[1] 王风云[2] 

机构地区：[1]厦门大学数学科学学院,福建厦门361005 [2]北京石油化工学院,北京102617

出　　处：《石油化工管理干部学院学报》2008年第3期48-52,共5页Journal of Sinopec Management Institute

摘　　要：以1978--2006年的年度中国能源消费总量与实际 GDP 的数据为依据,运用协整分析、误差修正模型和Granger 因果关系检验方法,检验我国能源消费总量和国内生产总值之间的关系。实证表明,尽管在短期内,能源消费与 GDP 之间的关系起伏波动,但是长期看,经济增长与能源消费之间具有相对稳定的关系,且存在从经济增长到能源消费单向因果关系。我国应当建立与完善能源生产消费监测和预警机制,提高能源利用效率,鼓励开发新能源,加大能源开发力度,优化能源结构,加快经济结构向能源集约化和节约型的转变。Based on data of total amount of energy resources consumption and real GDP from 1978 to 2006, checked relations between energy resource consumption and GDP in terms of cointegration analysis, error correction model checking method of Granger relation between cause and result. It showed that although relations between energy resource consumption and GDP fluctuate in short period of time, in long term the relation is relatively stable, and the relation between economic increase and energy resources consumption is that of cause and result. We should establish and perfect supervising and early warning mechanism of energy resources production and consumption, raise utilization ratio, encourage developing new energy resources, making more efforts to develop new energy resources, optimize structure of energy resources, and speed up economic structure transferring into intensive and economical type of energy resources.

关 键 词：能源消费 经济增长 协整 误差修正模型 因果关系 

分 类 号：F426.2[经济管理—产业经济] F124F224