统计地震学的基本问题  

Beyond Controversies and Techniques:Fundamental Problems of Statistical Seismology

作　　者：吴忠良[1] 朱传镇[1] 蒋长胜[1] 赵祎喆[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国地震局地球物理研究所 [2]中国科学院研究生院计算地球动力学实验室,北京石景山区玉泉路19号甲100049

出　　处：《中国地震》2008年第3期197-206,共10页Earthquake Research in China

基　　金：国家973项目(2004CB418406)资助

摘　　要："统计地震学"决不仅仅是统计学在地震研究中的简单应用。对这一点的忽视常常导致对"统计地震学"意义的低估。经过几十年的发展,现在是系统讨论"统计地震学"基本问题的时候了。这种讨论不仅对"统计地震学"自身的发展,而且对与地震预测预报相关的交叉学科的研究都是有益的。本文的注意力集中于"狭义的""统计地震学",即以地震预测预报为目标的、针对地震现象(主要是地震活动性)的统计研究。我们把"统计地震学"基本问题归纳为7个方面:①地震活动的统计规律及其独立性问题;②长期地震预测的统计方法的有效性问题;③中期时间尺度地震活动的"异常"问题;④可能的地震前兆和地震预测预报方法的统计显著性问题;⑤地震的物理可预报性问题;⑥地震预测预报的地震活动性方法的能力和限度问题;⑦地震活动的物理模型的"真实性"问题。本文的目的不是对"统计地震学"提出一个"希尔伯特问题"的框架,而是试图引起更多的讨论,特别是引起人们对超越争论、超越算法的基本问题的关注。It has been more and more clear that statistical seismology as an independent subject is much more complicated than the simple application of statistical tools to seismological problems. Misunderstanding of this point often leads to the underestimation of the significance of statistical seismology. With the development of models and concepts over the past decades, especially in recent years, it is time to outline the framework of statistical seismology both for the interdisciplinary communications and for the further development of this research field. For this purpose we try to discuss the fundamental problems of statistical seismology. Our attention is focused on ＂special statistical seismology＂, that is, statistical studies of earthquake phenomenology, especially seismicity, for earthquake forecast/prediction. We try to discuss the fundamental problems of statistical seismology in the following seven aspects： （1） independence of statistical distributions of seismicity parameters; （2） effectiveness of probabilistic forecast of long-term seismic hazard; （3） ＂normal＂ versus ＂abnormal＂ seismicity at intermediate-term time scale; （4） statistical significance of candidate earthquake precursors and schemes for earthquake forecast; （5） physical predictability of earthquakes and its observational evidences; （6） capability and limit of analysis of seismicity in earthquake forecast; and （7） validity of physical models in understanding the characteristics of seismicity. The aim is not to propose a set of Hilbert problems——Rather, the aim is to invoke further discussions on the more fundamental problems in statistical seismology beyond the controversies and the technique issues.

关 键 词：“统计地震学” 地震预测预报 

分 类 号：P315[天文地球—地震学]