甘肃年度地震危险区划定的R值评分研究  

Review of Seismic Risk Areas Delineation in Gansu on the Basis of R-value Evaluation

作　　者：代炜[1] 胡永钧[1] 孙军杰[1,3] 冯建刚[1] 陈立琼 

机构地区：[1]中国地震局兰州地震研究所,兰州市730000 [2]兰州市地震局,兰州730000 [3]中国地震局地震预测研究所兰州科技创新基地,兰州730000

出　　处：《中国地震》2008年第3期299-307,共9页Earthquake Research in China

基　　金：地震科学联合基金项目(C07048);中国地震局地震预测研究所基本科研业务费资助项目.论著编号:中国地震局兰州地震研究所LC2008011.

摘　　要：年度地震危险区是一个比较特殊的评价对象。作者在前人研究的基础上对R值评分公式做了适当的改进,将原有方法的用地震个数求报准率,改为用地震危险区面积求取报准率,在不改变公式物理意义的前提下,使其更适合于对年度地震危险区这个特殊对象做出科学评价。改进后的公式排除了数学上不成立的情况,不鼓励虚测,不鼓励漏测。对甘肃1986-2007年的年度地震危险区和目前甘肃地震预测预报水平做出了科学客观的评价。依据评价结果提出了改进年度地震危险区划定方法的建议。Prediction for annual seismic risk areas is a special evaluation object. The paper tries to improve the formula of R value on the basis of former researches. Under the condition of not changing the physic meaning of formula, the original method based on the number of earthquakes has been changed to the seismic risk area method in order to seek the exactitude rate of prediction and make it more suitable for scientific evaluation of annual seismic risk areas. The paper makes a simple demonstration of the improved formula. The improved formula excludes the inequality on mathematics that will discourage false declaration and misreporting. A scientific summary is made on the prediction for seismic risk from 1986 to 2007 and the present level of earthquake prediction in Gansu and a proposal for the criterion on determining annual seismic risk area is forwarded with the help of the evaluation result.

关 键 词：甘肃 年度地震危险区 R值评分 地震预测 

分 类 号：P315[天文地球—地震学]