全球气候变化对黄河流域水资源影响分析  

Analysis on Effects of Global Climate Change on Water Resource in the Yellow River Basin

作　　者：於凡[1,2] 张光辉[2] 柳玉梅[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国原子能科学研究院环境影响评价中心,北京102413 [2]北京师范大学地理学与遥感科学学院,北京100875

出　　处：《水文》2008年第5期52-56,共5页Journal of China Hydrology

基　　金："十一五"国家科技支撑项目"水土流失动态监测与评价关键技术"(2006BAD09B05)

摘　　要：黄河流域处于干旱半干旱气候区,是我国西北和华北的重要水源区,也是我国主要的缺水地区。黄河流域自1972年以来,因来水减少,引水量增大,导致黄河频繁断流。本文选用英国HadCM3、澳大利亚CSIROMKⅡ及加拿大CGCM1大气环流模型(GCM),选用A2和B2排放情景,运用Delta方法进行GCM模型输出结果的降尺度处理,在此基础上采用GIS和SPSS分析了全球气候变化对黄河流域水资源的定量影响,气候变暖使黄河径流量主要呈减少趋势,加剧黄河水资源的供需矛盾。研究结果对黄河流域水资源的优化利用、调度和管理具有重要的意义。The Yellow River Basin is located in the semi-arid and arid climate zone as an important water resources area for the Northwest and North China. Since 1972, the Yellow River has frequently run dry due to decrease in runoff and increase in water demand. Based on the models of HadCM3, CSIROMKⅡ and CGCM1, the derived data under A2 and B2 emission scenarios was downscaled by using Delta method. The potential effects of climate change on natural runoff were analyzed by means of Geographic Information System and SPSS. The results show that runoff will decrease significantly caused by climate warming, which will strengthen the conflict between water supply and demand. The results have significant meaning for the utilization and management of water resources in the Yellow River Basin.

关 键 词：全球气候变化 大气环流模型(GCM) 降尺度 情景 径流 潜在蒸发 

分 类 号：S157.1[农业科学—土壤学]