Trip Generation Model Based on Destination Attractiveness  

作　　者：姚丽亚 关宏志 严海 

机构地区：[1]Key Laboratory of Traffic Engineering,Beijing University of Technology

出　　处：《Tsinghua Science and Technology》2008年第5期632-635,共4页清华大学学报（自然科学版（英文版）

基　　金：the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 50478041);the Natural Science Foundation of Beijing (No. 8053019)

摘　　要：Traditional trip generation forecasting methods use unified average trip generation rates to determine trip generation volumes in various traffic zones without considering the individual characteristics of each traffic zone. Therefore, the results can have significant errors. To reduce the forecasting error produced by uniform trip generation rates for different traffic zones, the behavior of each traveler was studied instead of the characteristics of the traffic zone. This paper gives a method for calculating the trip efficiency and the effect of traffic zones combined with a destination selection model based on disaggregate theory for trip generation. Beijing data is used with the trip generation method to predict trip volumes. The results show that the disaggregate model in this paper is more accurate than the traditional method. An analysis of the factors influencing traveler behavior and destination selection shows that the attractiveness of the traffic zone strongly affects the trip generation volume.Traditional trip generation forecasting methods use unified average trip generation rates to determine trip generation volumes in various traffic zones without considering the individual characteristics of each traffic zone. Therefore, the results can have significant errors. To reduce the forecasting error produced by uniform trip generation rates for different traffic zones, the behavior of each traveler was studied instead of the characteristics of the traffic zone. This paper gives a method for calculating the trip efficiency and the effect of traffic zones combined with a destination selection model based on disaggregate theory for trip generation. Beijing data is used with the trip generation method to predict trip volumes. The results show that the disaggregate model in this paper is more accurate than the traditional method. An analysis of the factors influencing traveler behavior and destination selection shows that the attractiveness of the traffic zone strongly affects the trip generation volume.

关 键 词：traffic demand forecasting trip generation ATTRACTIVENESS disaggregate model 

分 类 号：TB115[理学—数学]