基于复杂适应系统的经济建模仿真方法  

A CAS-based Economic Modeling Simulation Method

作　　者：田丰[1] 李侠[2] 李坚石[1] 

机构地区：[1]贵州大学计算机科学与技术学院,贵州贵阳550025 [2]贵州大学经济学院,贵州贵阳550025

出　　处：《计算机仿真》2008年第10期266-271,共6页Computer Simulation

基　　金：国家自然科学基金会(60473054);贵州省科学技术基金(20072205)

摘　　要：首先在概要阐述了复杂适应系统后,用6个流程图详细论述了"回声模型"的生成过程。试图针对主体的特性,将经济系统视为复杂适应系统进行系统分析,用复杂适应系统理论的思想和方法结合博弈论解决传统经济学理论不能较好处理的有限理性、非对称信息问题,提出基于主体的自下而上的建模仿真方法。基于计算机直接模型,给出示例及相应模拟。研究表明复杂适应系统理论能够更好地解释和描述经济系统的动态均衡和涌现现象,提供了一种新的看待经济问题的方法。The essay primarily illustrates CAS （complex adaptive system） briefly, and demonstrates the creation of＂ Echo model＂ by six program flows. In view of the agent characteristic, the agent - based building model method is proposed from bottom to top after analyzing the economic system as complex adaptive system and combining the thought and method of the complex adaptive system theory with the Game theory, which can explain the bounded rationality and the asymmetrical information instead of the traditional economic theory. The method is based on the direct computer model and gives examples and corresponding simulation. The study demonstrates that the complex adaptive system can well explain the dynamic equilibrium and emergence, and offers a new way to deal with the economic problems.

关 键 词：复杂适应系统 主体 经济系统 建模 仿真 

分 类 号：TP391.9[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术]