水库大坝的险情识别  

Identification of hazard situation of dams

作　　者：吴中如[1] 金永强[1] 马福恒[2] 向衍[2] 

机构地区：[1]河海大学水电学院,南京210098 [2]水利部大坝安全管理中心,南京210029

出　　处：《中国水利》2008年第20期32-33,28,共3页China Water Resources

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点项目"岩石高边坡失稳的大型滑坡预警和防治(50539110)";国家自然科学基金重点项目"现代水工大体积混凝土裂缝机理与控制(50539010)";国家科技支撑计划课题"基于风险的大坝安全评价技术开发(2006BAC14B03)"

摘　　要：溃坝事故的发生将会对下游经济社会产生灾难性的影响,对水库大坝的险情分析将有助于全面掌握水库大坝的健康状况,因而有着重要的意义。提出三种不同险情程度的水库大坝识别标准,进而统计分析国内外溃坝资料,据此对溃坝宏观机理(即溃坝模式和溃坝路径)进行分析,提出了水库大坝溃坝模式模糊识别方法和溃坝路径的区间层次分析方法。Happening of dam break causes disastrous consequence on the economy and society to the lower reaches. Analysis of hazard situation of dams helps to get information of their health status. Classification for indentifying three levels of hazard dams is proposed. Statistics and analysis are made to the dam failure both home and abroad. The mechanism of dam failure （i.e. model and path） is investigated. Based on this, the methods of fuzzy identification of dam failure model and range and sequence of dam failure path are presented.

关 键 词：险情 溃坝模式 模糊识别 区间层次分析 

分 类 号：TV698.1[水利工程—水利水电工程]