人民币汇率变动影响我国CPI的计量分析  

An Econometric Analysis of the Effect of RMB Appreciation on CPI

作　　者：曾令美[1] 周庆武[2] 

机构地区：[1]华东师范大学商学院,上海200062 [2]中国人民银行上海总部,上海200120

出　　处：《上海金融》2008年第10期70-74,共5页Shanghai Finance

摘　　要：本文结合理论分析和实证检验研究了人民币升值对我国通货膨胀的影响。我们发现,人民币升值一定程度上可以抑制通货膨胀,但效果并不显著,且有较长时滞。考虑到中国经济情况复杂,经济形势变化迅速,人民币升值不能作为抑制通货膨胀的主要工具。应在准确把握中国经济发展变化情况的基础上,合理搭配多种货币政策工具治理通货膨胀。The article studies the effect of RMB appreciation on inflation with theoretical analysis and statistic test. We find out that RMB appreciation can curb inflation to some extent. But the effect is not significant, and it takes a long time. Considering the complicated situation and rapid change of China＇s economy, the appreciation of RMB can＇t be used as the main tool＇to curb inflation. Reasonable combination of various monetary policy instruments should be applied to control inflation on the basis of accurately understanding China＇s economy.

关 键 词：升值 通货膨胀 居民消费对外依赖度 脉冲响应 

分 类 号：F830.92[经济管理—金融学]