灰色模型GM(1,1)在益阳市耕地预测中的应用  

Application of Gray Model GM (1,1) on Forecast of Cultivated Land in Yiyang Municipality

作　　者：胡丽敏[1] 周新地[1] 黄长军[1] 

机构地区：[1]湖南城市学院城市建设系,湖南益阳413000

出　　处：《湖南城市学院学报（自然科学版）》2008年第3期75-78,共4页Journal of Hunan City University:Natural Science

摘　　要：以湖南省益阳市2000～2006年耕地数据为基础和平台,运用灰色预测GM(1,1)模型,探讨了耕地数量动态变化,为可持续发展规划提供参考.结果表明,GM(1,1)模型对益阳市耕地资源数量的历史趋势拟合程度较高,预测结果符合益阳市耕地数量变化规律,即益阳市耕地面积在未来几年内仍将呈现出持续减少的趋势.因此保护耕地资源,合理利用和保护耕地都是刻不容缓的任务.With the farmland data of Yiyang area in Hunan Province during 2000-2006 as base and platform, based on gray forecast model GM （1,1） ,the dynamic changes of farmland in the,amount are explored to offer some reference for sustainable use planning of land. the results showed that model GM （1,1） fits a higher degree to the historical trends of farmland resources in Yiyang area, the forecast results also meet the amount changes of farmland. In the next few years, the area of farmland in Yiyang area will continue a decreasing trend. Therefore, protection of farmland resources, the rational use and protection of farmland become imperative tasks.

关 键 词：灰色预测 GM(1 1)模型 益阳市 耕地资源 

分 类 号：F323.211[经济管理—产业经济] F224