云南省粮食供需安全状况及趋势研究  

RESEARCH ON SITUATION OF GRAINYIELD AND DEMAND AND TENDENCY IN YUNNAN PROVINCE

作　　者：华红莲[1] 童彦[1] 张碧星[2] 

机构地区：[1]云南师范大学旅游与地理科学学院,云南昆明650092 [2]长治学院社科系,山西长治046000

出　　处：《云南地理环境研究》2008年第5期79-83,共5页Yunnan Geographic Environment Research

基　　金：云南师范大学自然科学青年基金资助

摘　　要：通过对云南省近18年来粮食生产与需求进行对比，定量分析了当前云南省粮食供需状况，并在此基础上通过灰色系统GM（1，1）模型预测2010～2030年粮食产量，同时参照云南省的权威人口预测数据，对未来云南省粮食供需趋势进行预测。研究表明：在未来20多年内，云南省土地提供的粮食能基本满足全省居民温饱型的粮食消费水平，距小康型粮食消费水平有一定差距，达到富裕型粮食消费水平的可能性很小。根据研究结论和目前云南省粮食供需状况，提出了相关解决云南省粮食产能安全的对策和建议。The paper uses the contrast of grain yield and demand in Yunnan Province of the last 18 years, and analyze the situation of grain Production security at the present in Yunnan Province. On basing of above, take GM （ 1, 1 ） gray model calculate the grain yield and population quantity from 2010 to 2030. Thus, calculate the situation of grain yield and demand in the future. The research indicates within 20 years in the future, the grain that land can provide will be able to meet the residents, warmly consume, and have spatiality away from well-off consume, and the possibility of reach well-to-do will be small. On basis of research conclusion and the situation of grain yield and demand in Yunnan Province, we put forward some tactics and suggestions that can be used to solve grain secure in Yunnan Province.

关 键 词：粮食安全 粮食供需 灰色模型 云南省 

分 类 号：F321.1[经济管理—产业经济]