新疆气候变化与生态环境的初步评估  

The Elementary Assessment of Climate Change and Environment in Xinjiang

作　　者：张家宝[1] 陈洪武[2] 毛炜峄[2] 赵逸舟[2] 江远安[2] 辛渝[2] 陈颖[2] 王慧[2] 王铁[2] 李元鹏[2] 李兰[2] 

机构地区：[1]新疆气象局,新疆乌鲁木齐8300022 [2]新疆气候中心,新疆乌鲁木齐830002

出　　处：《沙漠与绿洲气象》2008年第4期1-11,共11页Desert and Oasis Meteorology

摘　　要：近50a来,新疆气候变暖、降水增多的趋势明显,并将持续到21世纪末。新疆生态环境系统的总体特征是:水资源是新疆生态环境的核心;形成了山地、绿洲、荒漠三大生态环境系统;生态环境脆弱;土地有效利用率低;加强生态建设和环境保护具有很大潜力。在全球和新疆气候变暖的背景下,新疆极端天气、气候事件频发,防灾减灾形势更为严峻,而且绝大部分冰川退缩,并呈加速减退的趋势;但因气候变暖的同时降水增多,河流径流量呈增加趋势,生态环境随之有所恢复与改善,加之新疆又地处欧亚大陆中部,因而全球气候变化造成直接的、近期的负面影响,在新疆的表现比世界大多数地区要轻、要小。由于新疆气候变化、人类活动的负面影响以及资源利用效率低下、经济结构不合理等因素,新疆生态环境形势依然相当严峻,完全遏制生态环境恶化和实现生态环境全面改善任重道远。基于以上评估结论,提出了三项对策建议。Xinjiang exists an outstanding climate warming and wetting tendency in the recent 50 years and will continue until the end of 21 centuries. The total characteristics of the ecoenvironment system in Xinjiang are： the water resource is the core of the ecosystem environment of Xinjiang; it is formed the mountain, Oasis, desertification three major ecological environment systems; the ecological environment is fragile; the effective utilization ratio of land is lower; strengthening ecological construction and environmental protection has huge potential. On the background of the global climate getting warmer, considering the facts that the extreme weather and climate events happen frequently, most glaciers are getting shrink and even showing an accelerating atrophic tendency, etc., the situation of defending and abating calamity is even more austere. Even so, at the same time, there still appears an ascending tendency in the runoff of rivers and the environment is getting restored and improved a little caused by the more precipitation. Recently, the direct negative effect of global climate change to Xinjiang is slighter than the most regions in the world because it locates in the middle of Europe-Asia continent. The changing situation of environment is still austere found on the present climatic change, the negative effect caused by mankind＇s activity, the efficiency of utilizing resources are lower and the economical structure is improper etc., so it is a long way to fully resist and improve the deteriorating environment in Xinjiang. Three measures are given on the basis of the above conclusions.

关 键 词：新疆 气候变化 生态环境 人类活动 初步评估 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]