AHP-Fuzzy在港口环境承载力综合评价中的应用  

The application of AHP-Fuzzy approach to the sea-port environmental carrying capacity evaluation

作　　者：戴明新[1] 胡焱弟[1] 彭士涛[1] 白志鹏[1] 田雨[1] 王芃[1] 

机构地区：[1]南开大学环境科学与工程学院

出　　处：《安全与环境学报》2008年第5期109-112,共4页Journal of Safety and Environment

基　　金：交通部天津水运工程科学研究所科技开发基金项目(TKS07020203)

摘　　要：为评价港口的可持续发展情况,分析影响港口环境承载力的主要因素,并根据科学性、可行性、针对性和动态性原则建立港口环境承载力的评价指标体系。该体系包括交通条件、社会经济条件、能源资源条件、环境污染水平及港口自然条件和软硬件条件等指标。根据现阶段我国港口研究数据,采用层次分析法和模糊综合评价模型相结合的方法对港口环境承载力进行综合评价。通过层次分析法确定各评价指标的权重,结合各指标相对各评价等级的隶属度,计算港口环境承载力的综合评价等级。以天津港为例,对其环境承载力进行定量分析。结果表明,天津港目前的港口发展规模与其所处的社会经济、环境生态系统的协调程度为一般水平,其中港口腹地交通条件和能源资源条件是限制港口可持续发展的2个主要因素。研究表明,该方法(AHP-Fuzzy)是适合我国现阶段港口环境承载力评价的可行方法。This paper is to introduce its study results on the way of evaluation the sustainability of seaport development,in which we have given its definition and the main factors and indexes for such evaluations.When defining and selecting the evaluation indexes,including those of traffic condition,social and economic condition,energy and resource condition,environmental pollution situation and both the software and hardware condition of the port itself,we have summarized three main kinds of evaluation systems： the experience estimation,index system evaluation and the complex system analysis.According to the available data existing for the port evaluation in China at present,we have proposed proper index system evaluation method,analytic hierarchy processing method（AHP）—a fuzzy comprehensive port environmental carrying capacity evaluation in China at this stage.Actually,the so-called AHP method can be used to get the relative importance of the evaluation index combined with the membership degree of each evaluation index by means of the fuzzy membership degree function,which makes it possible to work out the evaluation results of the port＇s environmental carrying capacity.Tianjin Port has been taken as a case study for its environmental carrying capacity by using the AHP-Fuzzy method.The results of our evaluation show that the sustainability of Tianjin Port development remains at the acceptable level in this way.Thus,the application of AHP-Fuzzy to Tianjin Port proves that this method is practicable and feasible for China＇s,for it helps to reduce the lopsided influence of subjective factors in such evaluations,particularly as compared to the experience estimation systems.

关 键 词：环境质量监测与评价 港口环境承载力 评价指标体系 层次分析法 模糊综合评价 

分 类 号：X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程]