复杂系统脆性理论的风险分析  

Risk analysis of complex system brittleness

作　　者：吴红梅[1] 金鸿章[2] 林德明 王辉[2] 

机构地区：[1]哈尔滨工程大学理学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150001 [2]哈尔滨工程大学自动化学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150001

出　　处：《系统工程与电子技术》2008年第10期2019-2022,共4页Systems Engineering and Electronics

基　　金：国防科工委技术委员会基础研究基金(J1600B001);黑龙江博士后资助经费(LBH-Z05059);黑龙江省自然科学基金(TA2005-19)资助课题

摘　　要：复杂系统的崩溃,主要是由于某些子系统受到内外界的干扰引发了各子系统之间的脆性联系,从而导致了整个复杂系统的崩溃。分析复杂系统脆性被激发的过程,从而得到引起整个系统崩溃的各个因素的集合;根据复杂系统的脆性风险与引起复杂系统崩溃的各个因素发生的概率、对系统造成的后果之间的联系,定义复杂系统脆性风险熵函数,并根据熵函数的性质找到控制风险熵的策略。将控制策略应用到煤矿瓦斯爆炸事故系统的脆性风险控制中,成功地对其进行了控制。The complex system is disturbed by the inner or outside factors, which leads some sub-systems to collapse. These collapsed sub- systems affect other sub-systems which have brittle contact with these collapsed sub-systems, thus causing the whole complex system to collapse. Based on the analysis of brittle occurring process, the factor sets which bring the collapse of the complex system are obtained. The brittle risk of the complex system which is influenced by the probability of some collapse factors and the severity results of systems is defined. The controlled strategy is acquired according to the property of the entropy function, and is successfully applied to the brittle risk of a gas explosion accident system.

关 键 词：复杂系统 脆性风险 熵函数 煤矿事故 

分 类 号：N941.1[自然科学总论—系统科学]