超低生育率阶段的区域人口发展战略  

Regional Population Development Strategy at the Stage of Lowest-low Fertility

作　　者：穆光宗[1] 武继磊[1] 张敏才 姜军 潘宪君 刘文 洪毅 

机构地区：[1]北京大学人口研究所,北京100871 [2]中国人口学会,北京100081 [3]辽宁省辽阳市人民政府,辽宁辽阳111000 [4]辽宁省辽阳市人口计生委,辽宁辽阳111000

出　　处：《人口学刊》2008年第6期3-9,共7页Population Journal

基　　金：辽宁省辽阳市人口发展战略研究横向课题

摘　　要：随着我国人口转变的实现和完成,越来越多的地方进入了"超低生育率"发展阶段,未来时期的人口发展战略面临着何去何从的抉择。以辽宁省辽阳市为案例总结区域人口转变的阶段和特点,指出辽阳已经出现"意愿性超低生育率"现象,带来了人口发展风险问题。随着计划生育风险家庭和残缺家庭的增多,辽阳的公共财政压力已经感受到巨大挑战。人口安全要求坚守计划生育的"底线伦理",降低计划生育风险家庭和残缺家庭在整个计划生育家庭中的规模和比例。未来的区域人口安全发展战略必须考虑确立的两个基本点是"优先健全人口结构、兼顾控制人口增量",不鼓励农村一女户放弃二胎生育指标,尽快建立独生子女家庭风险防范的社会机制和独生子女困难家庭公益救助机制。More and more regions have entered the new stage of lowest - low fertility with the coming true of demographic transition in China. Meanwhile, the population is facing how to develop in the future. This report sums up the regional eharactaristics of Liaoyang demographic transition of Liaoning Province. The authors point out that wanted lowest - low fertility has brought about the great risk of population development. In reality, the public finance tins been under the great pressure of the inclease of birth plan-ning risk families and incomplete ones. Undoubtly, the population security requires the birth control boundary line, which demands the decrease of birth planning risk families and incomplete ones＇ s proportion and scale. The future regional population development strategy should be based on the strenthening of population structure as well as the control of population growth. As a responsible government, don＇ t promote the only one daughter families abandon the opportunity of second birth, meanwhile, establish the risk -avoiding and charity -helping social mechanism for birth planning risk families and incomplete ones as soon as possible.

关 键 词：超低生育率 人口转变 人口风险 计划生育风险家庭 人口安全 人口发展战略 

分 类 号：C924.24[社会学—人口学]