中国区域间资本流动：基于Feldstein-Horioka方法的检验  

Chinese Regional Capital Mobility Based on the Feldstein-Horioka Approach

作　　者：李治国[1] 

机构地区：[1]复旦大学管理学院讲师

出　　处：《统计研究》2008年第10期73-81,共9页Statistical Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“对外开放的宏观经济风险、风险指标及风险评估”(70573025);教育部人文社会科学研究项目“中国转型期的新宏观经济计量模型:行为、机制与反馈”(06JC790011)资助

摘　　要：本研究基于Feldstein-Horioka方法考察我国区域间储蓄投资相关性及其所体现的区域间资本流动性。截面回归模型分析显示,我国区域间资本流动性介于国际情形和发达国家内部情形之间,并且不断加强。但是,考虑区域规模效应、经济周期效应以及误差修正项的影响,基于面板数据模型的实证结果表明,我国区域间资本流动性显得更弱一些,即使正在加强也较为缓慢。2003年以来,我国区域间储蓄投资短期转化系数急剧上升及其所反应出的区域间资本流动性减弱,虽然可以部分地解释为区域规模效应的影响,但更主要是因为我国经济结构的变化和区域间金融市场分割现象。Chinese regional saving-investment relation and the relative regional capital mobility are studied based on the FeldsteirvHorioka approach. The results indicate that the degree of Chinese regional capital mobility is higher than the cross- countries condition but lower than the cross-regions condition within a developed country. However, considering the economic size effect and the business cycle effect and error correction vector, the results show that Chinese regional capital mobility becomes a little weaker. Since 2003, the increasing short-run saving retention coefficient and the relatively lowering regional capital mobility are only partly caused by the economic size effect. The more important reasons are the economic structure changes and the regional financial segmentations.

关 键 词：区域间资本流动 Feldstein-Horioka方法 储蓄投资相关性 

分 类 号：C812[社会学—统计学]