“十一五”建筑节能任务的完成策略及其经济和环境影响测算  

Strategy to Accomplish the Building Energy Efficiency Task in the 11th Five-Year Plan and Its Direct Economic and Environmental Impact Evaluation

作　　者：刘秀丽[1] 汪寿阳[1] 杨翠红[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院系统所,北京100190

出　　处：《建筑经济》2008年第11期93-96,共4页Construction Economy

基　　金：住房和城乡建设部课题"建筑节能标准对国民经济和社会发展影响的模型测算";国家自然科学基金(No.70701034;No.60874119);中国科学院知识创新工程重大项目(KSCX-YW-09)

摘　　要：本研究采用经济计量方法,建立建筑节能①对建筑能耗的直接经济和环境影响测算模型。在合理的情景假定下,应用该模型测算,得出如下主要结论:"十一五"建筑节能目标的各项分解任务和总的节能任务可在三年内完成。三年中每年的建筑节能量对"十一五"期间平均每年节能任务的贡献率分别是17.28%、34.55%、51.83%。三年中每年因建筑节能而减少的主要污染物的排放量对"十一五"期间平均每年减排任务的贡献率分别是76%、152%和228%。建筑节能还可承担更多的节能任务。最后提出可以适当增加既有建筑节能改造节能任务的政策建议。This paper established an econometric model to measure the direct economic and environmental impact of building energy efficiency to building energy consumption. Under the reasonable scenario, applying the model, we came to the conclusion that the whole task and its components of the building energy efficiency in the 1 lth Five- Year Plan could be achieved in three years. The contribution rate of the amount of building energy efficiency of every year in the three years to the average annual energy saving tasks of the 1 lth Five-Year Plan is 17.28%, 34.55% and 51.83% respectively. And the contribution rate of the reduced discharge amount of the major pollutants by building energy efficiency every year in the three years to the average annual main pollutants reduced tasks of the 1 lth Five-Year Plan is 76%, 152% and 228% respectively. Building energy efficiency can take on more energy saving task. Finally, it put forward a policy suggestion that the energy efficiency task of the reconstruction of existing buildings should be properly added.

关 键 词：建筑节能 经济影响 环境影响 数量经济模型 

分 类 号：F407.9[经济管理—产业经济]