层次分析法在泥石流危险度评价中的应用--以北京市密云县为例  

Application of Analytic Hierarchy Process in Debris Flow Risk Degree Assessment——A Case Study of Miyun County,Beijing City

作　　者：刘涛[1] 张洪江[1] 吴敬东[2] 侯旭峰[2] 郑国强[1] 叶芝菡[2] 

机构地区：[1]北京林业大学水土保持学院,北京100083 [2]北京市水利科学研究所,北京100044

出　　处：《水土保持通报》2008年第5期6-10,共5页Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation

基　　金：北京市科技计划项目(D0704004000091)

摘　　要：泥石流是山区常见的一种自然灾害,其危险度评价对实现区域防灾减灾具有重要意义。在深入分析密云县泥石流灾害的基础上,采用基于系统理论的层次分析法,从影响泥石流危险度的泥石流历史活动情况和潜在形成条件中选取10个指标作为背景参数进行定量化研究,建立了密云县泥石流危险度评价模型。所建立的模型中,历史活动情况所占权重为0.414,潜在形成条件所占权重为0.586。利用该模型对当地泥石流沟道进行危险度评价,其结果与实际情况具有较好的一致性。研究表明,运用层次分析法进行密云县泥石流危险度评价是实用的和有效的,进一步工作应放在评价方法的可靠性研究上,从而为使用者提供更为准确的评价结果。Debris flow is a natural disaster in mountainous areas, so estimation of its criticality is substantial in regional disaster prevention and reduction. Based on system theory and the analysis of the basic situation of debris flow disaster in Miyun County, this study uses analytic hierarchy process to quantify 10 factors which affect debris flow risk degree and construct a model for debris flow risk degree assessment. In the model, the percentage of inner factors is 41.4% and the percentage of external factors, 58.6%. The model is applied to assess the risk degree of local debris gullies. Result obtained has a high relativity to the real situa- tion. The study indicates that this kind of assessment is feasible and veracious for the assessment of the debris flow risk degree. The future tasks should be the reliability research on study methods and thus provide the accurate evaluation result for users.

关 键 词：泥石流 危险度评价 层次分析法 判断矩阵 

分 类 号：P642.23[天文地球—工程地质学]