唐山地震的超晚期强余震估计  

ESTIMATION OF LATE STRONG AFTERSHOCKS IN TANGSHAN AREA

作　　者：戴英华[1] 李淑莲[1] 孙清杰[1] 

机构地区：[1]河北省地震局,石家庄050021

出　　处：《华北地震科学》1997年第4期1-9,共9页North China Earthquake Sciences

摘　　要：根据华北历史地震的重复性和免疫性，认为在唐山周围85km、200年内，对6级地震具有一定的免疫性；在研究了唐山地震序列自身的衰减规律后，认为在今后几十年内强余震的最大活动水平为5级，发生6级以上地震的可能性很小。In this paper, it is considered that the occurrence of strong events M≥6 in Tangshan within a radius of 85 kilometres in coming 200 years has a certain immunity basing on the analysis of recurrence penod of strong earthquakes in North China and the characteristics of the tempalspatial distribution ofevents with M≥6 after each strong event M≥7. According to the attenuation feature of the Tangshanearthquake sequence, it is considered that the maximum magnitude of strong aftershocks is about 5 inthis region in several decades of years in the future. The probability of occurrence of events with M≥6will be very small.

关 键 词：唐山地震 地震预报 余震 地震序列 强震 

分 类 号：P315.7[天文地球—地震学]