河北北部未来10年地震人员伤亡估计  

EVALUATION ON THE INJURED AND DIED PERSONNEL FROM EARTHQUAKES IN COMING TEN YEARS IN THE NORTHERN PART OF HEBEI PROVINCE

作　　者：毛国敏[1] 邹其嘉[1] 金学申[2] 顾建华[1] 孙振凯[1] 马桂明 

机构地区：[1]国家地震局地球物理研究所,北京100081 [2]河北省地震局,石家庄050021

出　　处：《华北地震科学》1997年第4期31-41,共11页North China Earthquake Sciences

基　　金：国家地震局"八.五"重点项目!(85-07-04-03-03)部分研究内容

摘　　要：利用地震人员易损性模型以及房屋易损性和地震危险性分析的结果，研究未来由于地震而可能引起的人员伤亡，给出①工作区（东经114°-117°,北纬39°-41°，不包括北京、天津及山西地区）内各乡（镇）在未来10年内因地震而造成的人员伤亡的期望值，伤亡率的期望值；②工作区伤亡总数的期望值，平均伤亡率的期望值；③工作区内一旦遭受烈度为Ⅵ、Ⅶ、Ⅷ、Ⅸ、Ⅹ度地震时各乡（镇）的震亡人数及受伤人数；④工作区内一旦遭受烈度为Ⅵ、Ⅶ、Ⅷ、Ⅸ、Ⅹ度地震时地震伤亡总数等预测结果。In this paper, the analysis results of the personnel vulnerability model, the houses vulnerability andseismic risk are used to study the injured and died caused by coming earthquakes. The paper presented(1) the expected value of the injured and died personnel from the earthquakes in coming 10 years in theTownships in the working areas (114°-117°east longitude, 39- 41° north latitude, not including Beijing, Tianjin and Shanxi areas), the expected value of the rate of the injured and died: (2) the expectedvalue of the total of the injured and the died and the expected value of the average rate of the injured andthe died in the working area ; (3)the number of the died and the injured in the earthquake once the workingarea is stricken by earthquakes with intensity VI, VII, VIII, IX and X in each Township: (4) thetotal number of the injured and the died once earthquakes with intensity VI, VII, VIII, IX and X occurin the working area.

关 键 词：河北 地震 灾害评估 灾害预测 人员伤亡 

分 类 号：P315.9[天文地球—地震学]