2007年夏季GRAPES-MESO15及30km模式对比检验  

Contrast Tests of 15 and 30 km GRAPES Model Products in Summer of 2007

作　　者：李勇 王雨 

机构地区：[1]国家气象中心,北京100081

出　　处：《气象》2008年第10期81-89,共9页Meteorological Monthly

基　　金：国家"十一五"科技支撑计划项目"灾害天气精细数值预报系统及短期气候集合预测研究"之01课题"我国新一代数值预报系统GRAPES的应用开发"第五子课题"GRAPES检验评估"以及"高分辨;非静力中尺度暴雨数值预报模式的发展及其预报系统的建立"共同资助

摘　　要：对2007年6—8月两种GRAPES模式产品进行天气学检验。结果表明:GRAPES模式对7月上旬淮河流域降水位置预报较为准确,但两种模式对降水量值预报均偏小。在淮河流域强降水期,两种模式对500hPa中高纬度平均槽脊的位置预报较为准确,15km模式对中低纬度印度半岛地区高度场预报更加准确,且对副热带高压588线平均北界位置的预报好于30km,但两种模式对副热带高压西伸脊点的位置预报偏东。GRAPES模式对850hPa温度趋势有较好的预报能力,都能够准确预报出850hPa温度的转折,15km模式比30km模式预报更为接近实况。此外,两种GRAPES模式对0709号台风的预报效果均不太理想,台风邻近登陆前850hPa气旋性环流仍不清楚,登陆后环流中心清楚,但预报中心位置偏向西南,路经预报存在偏差,同时登陆前的台风中心附近风速明显偏小。In order to improve the ability to use the products of GRAPES model, the 15 and 30km GRAPES model products in the whole summer of 2007 was verified. The results shows that the GRAPES models have good forecasting performance in aspect of predicting the position of precipitation, however, the two types of GRAPES models have the smaller precipitation intensity than the real observational precipitation at the Huaihe River Basin in the first ten days of the July. The position of average trough and ridge is consistent with that of the analytic data at 500hPa geo -potential height field. The forecast efficiency of 15km model is better than that of the 30km model for the height field in Indian peninsula and western Pacific region. The position of north boundary of 5880 geo - potential meters is also close to the analysis field, but the western ridge spot of subtropical high is eastward in comparison with the analysis field. The temperature transitions at 850hPa are all reflected by the two types of GRAPES models, and the temperature simulated by the 15km model is close to observations. Some errors of GRAPES models were found in predicting path and intensity of typhoon SEPAT. The center of circulation is not evident before the SEPAT lands our main land and the wind speed is obviously small.

关 键 词：GRAPES模式 性能检验 温度 降水 环流形势 

分 类 号：P457.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] TS103.72[轻工技术与工程—纺织工程]