报废汽车动态学建模及预测分析  

Analysis of Dynamic Modeling and Prediction of End-of-life Vehicles

作　　者：金晓红[1] 储江伟[1] 张铜柱[1] 崔鹏飞[1] 田广东[1] 王虎[1] 

机构地区：[1]吉林大学,长春130025

出　　处：《交通与计算机》2008年第5期23-25,29,共4页Computer and Communications

摘　　要：通过对汽车产品的生产、销售、使用、报废等过程分析,确立了汽车报废系统各变量之间的因果关系;利用系统动态学方法建立了汽车报废系统流图,通过对流图的分析构建了汽车报废系统数学模型,以此模型为基础对我国汽车报废量进行了仿真预测,并对我国汽车报废量的发展趋势及各种因素变化的影响进行了分析。The consequence between the variables in the end-of-life vehicle system was established by analyzing the product lifecycle assessment, including the production, sale, use, end of life, recovery, and recycle of automobile. Based on the system dynamics, the flow chart of the end-of-life vehicle system was built, and a model of the system was established. The number of the end-of-life vehicles was predicted based on this model. The trend of the end-of-life vehicles and the effect of various factors were analyzed.

关 键 词：报废汽车 模型 系统动态学 预测 

分 类 号：TP391[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术]