马尔柯夫链在陶瓷产品市场预测与决策中的应用  

Application of Prediction & Decision on the Ceramic Product Market with Markov Chains

作　　者：刘伟洁[1] 詹棠森[1] 

机构地区：[1]景德镇陶瓷学院,景德镇333403

出　　处：《办公自动化（综合月刊）》2008年第11期50-52,共3页Office Informatization

摘　　要：对销售市场来说,影响陶瓷产品销售的因素是多方面的,有自身的因素,同时还有外界的随机因素,这些因素会造成陶瓷商品销售量很大的波动幅度,用简单的回归方法难以预测,而马尔柯夫链不受上述因素的影响。本文利用马尔柯夫链理论对陶瓷产品销售市场的未来趋势进行建模,分析陶瓷产品在市场上的状态分布,得到了比较稳定的预测值,从而为提高陶瓷企业的市场竞争力、预测能力及其产品的市场占有率提供了理论依据。For the sales market, there are so many factors influencing the ceramic products sales, including self-factor, and so many external random factors. All of these will make a big shock to the fluctuation range of the ceramic products commodity marketing, it＇s difficult to predict by the simple regression analysis methods, excepts Markov Chains.So this article use the theory of Markov Chains to model the development of ceramic products sales market in the future, Analysising the state distribution of the ceramic products in the market, It is obtained that the compared stable predictive values.So far it will provide theoretical basis for improving the competitiveness of the ceramic enterprise ,the prediction ability and the product＇s market share.

关 键 词：市场预测 马尔柯夫链 转移概率矩阵 市场占有率 

分 类 号：F202[经济管理—国民经济] F272